New Delhi: Market intelligence research firm Counterpoint Research has lowered its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025. The firm has revised its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast downward to 1.9% year-on-year, from the earlier projection of 4.2%, citing uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.
However, most regions are still expected to see growth, except North America and China, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Market Outlook: Smartphone Shipment Forecast Report. Price increases from cost pass-throughs remain a key focal point, although the tariff situation is fluid and unpredictable.
Commenting on the revised forecast, Associate Director Liz Lee said, “All eyes are on Apple and Samsung because of their exposure to the US market. Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but also across Europe and parts of Asia.”
Lee added, “We still expect positive shipment growth for Apple in 2025, driven by the strong performance of the iPhone 16 series in Q1 2025.” She also noted that premiumisation trends remain supportive across emerging markets like India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf countries—these are long-term tailwinds for iPhones.
Counterpoint Research’s current forecasts assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025. However, the escalating rhetoric and uncertainty around trade policy could significantly impact manufacturers’ pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and ultimately, consumer demand.
Commenting on projections for global smartphone shipment growth in 2025, Associate Director Ethan Qi said, “The bright spot this year—again—will likely be Huawei. We are seeing an easing in sourcing bottlenecks for key components, at least through the rest of the year, which should help Huawei gain substantial share in the mid-to-lower-end segments at home.”
